Thu, Oct 15 · 8:15 PMWeek 6
SEA
Seattle Seahawks
23.0
58.6%
AT
DEN
Denver Broncos
18.1
41.4%
Pick: SEAMargin: 4.9Confidence: Medium (58.6)
Empower Field at Mile High
Experimental projection: 2026 model 2026-v3. For 2026-v2/v3, ratings blend 2025 regular-season performance with completed 2026 games: four games give each team a 50% current-season weight. These are statistical estimates, not betting advice.
How to Read These Predictions
Projected Score
The model's estimated points for each team. Decimal scores show the mathematical estimate; they are not intended to resemble a possible final score exactly.
Win Probability
The estimated chance that the team wins. The two percentages add to 100%. A 54.4% team is only a slight favorite, while 75% indicates a much stronger favorite.
Pick
The team with the higher win probability. It is the model's selection, not a guarantee or betting recommendation.
Margin
The difference between the two projected scores. SEA by 1.2 means Seattle is projected to outscore New England by 1.2 points.
Confidence Score
For 2026-v2/v3, confidence is the selected team’s win probability: Low below 56%, Medium from 56% to below 62%, and High at 62% or above. Earlier models may use different definitions.
Home and Neutral Sites
The 2026-v3 model estimates home advantage from 2025 scoring margins and applies no home adjustment at neutral sites. Earlier model versions may handle venues differently.
The 2026-v2/v3 models blend team scoring averages, offensive and defensive EPA per play, success rates and explosive-play rates. Current-season weights rise from 20% after one game to 50% after four and 80% after seven or more.
The generator uses refreshed team-season statistics and updates future games. Version 2026-v3 freezes predictions once games start. Predictions incorporate current-season form only after the statistics refresh and generator have run; injuries, lineup changes, weather and betting lines are not separate model inputs.
Sun, Oct 18 · 9:30 AMWeek 6
HOU
Houston Texans
18.0
37.8%
AT
JAX
Jacksonville Jaguars
25.0
62.2%
Pick: JAXMargin: 7.0Confidence: High (62.2)
Wembley Stadium · Neutral site
Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PMWeek 6
PIT
Pittsburgh Steelers
20.5
48.1%
AT
TB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
21.6
51.9%
Pick: TBMargin: 1.1Confidence: Low (51.9)
Raymond James Stadium
Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PMWeek 6
NYJ
New York Jets
16.4
32.9%
AT
NE
New England Patriots
26.4
67.1%
Pick: NEMargin: 10.0Confidence: High (67.1)
Gillette Stadium
Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PMWeek 6
NO
New Orleans Saints
20.9
42.3%
AT
NYG
New York Giants
25.3
57.7%
Pick: NYGMargin: 4.4Confidence: Medium (57.7)
MetLife Stadium
Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PMWeek 6
CHI
Chicago Bears
24.5
53.5%
AT
ATL
Atlanta Falcons
22.5
46.5%
Pick: CHIMargin: 2.0Confidence: Low (53.5)
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PMWeek 6
CAR
Carolina Panthers
21.6
47.2%
AT
PHI
Philadelphia Eagles
23.2
52.8%
Pick: PHIMargin: 1.6Confidence: Low (52.8)
Lincoln Financial Field
Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PMWeek 6
BAL
Baltimore Ravens
25.4
58.5%
AT
CLE
Cleveland Browns
20.6
41.5%
Pick: BALMargin: 4.8Confidence: Medium (58.5)
Huntington Bank Field
Sun, Oct 18 · 1:00 PMWeek 6
TEN
Tennessee Titans
17.9
34.1%
AT
IND
Indianapolis Colts
27.2
65.9%
Pick: INDMargin: 9.3Confidence: High (65.9)
Lucas Oil Stadium
Sun, Oct 18 · 4:05 PMWeek 6
ARI
Arizona Cardinals
17.6
28.5%
AT
LA
Los Angeles Rams
30.4
71.5%
Pick: LAMargin: 12.9Confidence: High (71.5)
SoFi Stadium
Sun, Oct 18 · 4:25 PMWeek 6
LAC
Los Angeles Chargers
16.7
34.1%
AT
KC
Kansas City Chiefs
25.9
65.9%
Pick: KCMargin: 9.2Confidence: High (65.9)
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Sun, Oct 18 · 4:25 PMWeek 6
BUF
Buffalo Bills
27.2
57.4%
AT
LV
Las Vegas Raiders
23.1
42.6%
Pick: BUFMargin: 4.2Confidence: Medium (57.4)
Allegiant Stadium
Sun, Oct 18 · 8:20 PMWeek 6
DAL
Dallas Cowboys
26.3
46.4%
AT
GB
Green Bay Packers
28.3
53.6%
Pick: GBMargin: 2.0Confidence: Low (53.6)
Lambeau Field
Mon, Oct 19 · 8:15 PMWeek 6
WAS
Washington Commanders
18.5
26.9%
AT
SF
San Francisco 49ers
32.5
73.1%
Pick: SFMargin: 14.0Confidence: High (73.2)
Levi's Stadium